Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Titans vs. Giants
Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 59.5 (-115) after it opened @ 62.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to notch 14.8 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among RBs.
- Saquon Barkley has received 58.1% of his team’s rush attempts since the start of last season, putting him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
- The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- The Giants are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the least yards in football (just 85 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season.
- The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the 5th-best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season with their run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards
61
Rushing Yards
