Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Rashaad Penny from EV Insight

Rashaad PennyRushing Yards

Right now, Rashaad Penny’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-137/+100).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 69.5 (-137) after it opened @ 65.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Rashaad Penny to notch 15.5 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Rashaad Penny to be a more integral piece of his offense’s rushing attack this week (61.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (47.2% in games he has played).
Rashaad Penny has picked up 71.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (97th percentile).
Rashaad Penny has been among the leading running backs in the league at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging an impressive 4.52 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 97th percentile.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Cons

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 40.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 9th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards