Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Nick ChubbRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Panthers vs. Browns
Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 73.5 (-115) after it opened @ 81.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 7th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 45.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to accumulate 14.9 rush attempts in this game, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
- The Cleveland Browns offensive line ranks as the best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
- Nick Chubb has been among the best RBs in the league at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a terrific 4.24 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 100th percentile.
- The Carolina Panthers safeties project as the 29th-worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.
Cons
- The Cleveland Browns will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense as the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 28.42 seconds per snap.
- The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s running game this week (52.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (62.5% in games he has played).
- The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards
68
Rushing Yards
