Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Nick Chubb from EV Insight

Nick ChubbRushing Yards

Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 73.5 (-115) after it opened @ 81.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 7th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 45.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to accumulate 14.9 rush attempts in this game, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line ranks as the best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
Nick Chubb has been among the best RBs in the league at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a terrific 4.24 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 100th percentile.
The Carolina Panthers safeties project as the 29th-worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.

Cons

The Cleveland Browns will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense as the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 28.42 seconds per snap.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s running game this week (52.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (62.5% in games he has played).
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards