NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Najee HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Steelers vs. 49ers
Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-106/-122).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-122) after it opened @ 49.5 (-112).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accumulate 11.6 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
- Najee Harris has generated 59.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the league among running backs (82nd percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 5th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to be a much smaller piece of his team’s run game this week (44.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (56.1% in games he has played).
- Najee Harris’s running effectiveness (3.73 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL since the start of last season (11th percentile among RBs).
- Najee Harris has been among the weakest RBs in the league at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.74 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 23rd percentile.
- Opposing offenses have run for the least yards in the league (just 77 per game) against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards
49
Rushing Yards
