NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Michael CarterRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Jets vs. Ravens
Right now, Michael Carter’s rushing yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 32.5 (-110) after it opened @ 33.5 (-110).
Pros
- Michael Carter has averaged 45.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the league among running backs (75th percentile).
- Michael Carter has been among the best running backs in football at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a terrific 3.37 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 88th percentile.
- The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets have elected to go for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
- The New York Jets have used some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.
Cons
- The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 8th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s running game this week (33.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (49.6% in games he has played).
- The Baltimore Ravens defensive ends profile as the 6th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
36
Rushing Yards
36
Rushing Yards
