Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Michael Carter from EV Insight

Michael CarterRushing Yards

Right now, Michael Carter’s rushing yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 32.5 (-110) after it opened @ 33.5 (-110).

Pros

Michael Carter has averaged 45.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the league among running backs (75th percentile).
Michael Carter has been among the best running backs in football at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a terrific 3.37 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 88th percentile.
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have elected to go for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
The New York Jets have used some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Cons

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 8th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s running game this week (33.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (49.6% in games he has played).
The Baltimore Ravens defensive ends profile as the 6th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
36
Rushing Yards