Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Josh Jacobs from EV Insight

Josh JacobsRushing Yards

Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).

Pros

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to garner 12.0 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-most yards in football (143 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Cons

The Raiders are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 8th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 36.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to be much less involved in his offense’s run game this week (50.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (67.7% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Chargers safeties rank as the 8th-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards