Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Texans vs. Colts
Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 92.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 92.5 (-110) after it opened @ 99.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Colts are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- The Colts have been the 7th-most run-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 40.0% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to earn 19.7 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
- The Houston Texans safeties profile as the 31st-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 121.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
101
Rushing Yards
101
Rushing Yards
