NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Javonte WilliamsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Seahawks vs. Broncos
Right now, Javonte Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Javonte Williams to accumulate 13.3 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
- Javonte Williams has garnered 47.9% of his offense’s rush attempts since the start of last season, putting him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
- Javonte Williams has generated 50.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (82nd percentile).
- Javonte Williams has been among the leading running backs in football at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging an impressive 3.42 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 90th percentile.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run out of all the games this week at 124.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-best group of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards
60
Rushing Yards
