Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Jets vs. Bills
Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-143/+110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (+110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-113).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects James Cook to be much more involved in his offense’s running game this week (37.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.1% in games he has played).
- James Cook’s ground efficiency (5.79 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (93rd percentile among running backs).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 37.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.8 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The New York Jets defense owns the 6th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, yielding just 4.28 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Rushing Yards
41
Rushing Yards
