Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James ConnerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Commanders vs. Cardinals
Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 5th-most run-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 43.0% run rate.
- The Arizona Cardinals offense has played at the 2nd-quickest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, averaging 26.07 seconds per snap.
- The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 5th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
- James Conner has generated 61.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football among running backs (84th percentile).
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals will be rolling with backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Cardinals are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- The Arizona Cardinals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 10th-least yards in football (just 111 per game) versus the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.
- The Washington Commanders defensive ends rank as the 8th-best unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Rushing Yards
62
Rushing Yards
