Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jamaal Williams from EV Insight

Jamaal WilliamsRushing Yards

Right now, Jamaal Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-112/-117).

The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-112) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).

Pros

The Saints are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Saints rank as the 6th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 44.3% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to notch 15.9 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
Jamaal Williams has earned 56.8% of his offense’s rush attempts since the start of last season, putting him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
Jamaal Williams has grinded out 66.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (91st percentile).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 2nd-least yards in the NFL (just 78 per game) versus the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends grade out as the 5th-best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards