Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Eli Mitchell from EV Insight

Eli MitchellRushing Yards

Right now, Eli Mitchell’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-110).

Pros

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Elijah Mitchell to accrue 13.9 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among running backs.
Elijah Mitchell has picked up 67.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (96th percentile).
The Chicago Bears linebackers project as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 4th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 6th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a measly 60.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Elijah Mitchell to be a less important option in his team’s running game this week (42.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (65.8% in games he has played).
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards