NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Eli MitchellRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bears vs. 49ers
Right now, Eli Mitchell’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-110).
Pros
- The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Elijah Mitchell to accrue 13.9 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among running backs.
- Elijah Mitchell has picked up 67.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (96th percentile).
- The Chicago Bears linebackers project as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 4th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the 6th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a measly 60.5 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Elijah Mitchell to be a less important option in his team’s running game this week (42.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (65.8% in games he has played).
- The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
