Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-120/-108).

The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-120) after it opened @ 79.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 7th-most run-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.0% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to notch 18.4 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has been given 80.1% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has generated 91.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among running backs (99th percentile).
Opposing squads have run for the 10th-most yards in the NFL (131 per game) versus the New Orleans Saints defense since the start of last season.

Cons

The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 5th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Projection

THE BLITZ
80
Rushing Yards