Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Titans vs. Giants
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 95.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 95.5 (-131) after it opened @ 99.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Titans are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 4th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to total 24.1 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
- The New York Giants linebackers rank as the 6th-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season with their run defense.
- The New York Giants have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 27.34 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to be a less important option in his team’s run game this week (78.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (90.8% in games he has played).
- The Tennessee Titans have gone up against a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
104
Rushing Yards
104
Rushing Yards
