Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 95.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 95.5 (-131) after it opened @ 99.5 (-115).

Pros

The Titans are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 4th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to total 24.1 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
The New York Giants linebackers rank as the 6th-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season with their run defense.
The New York Giants have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 27.34 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to be a less important option in his team’s run game this week (78.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (90.8% in games he has played).
The Tennessee Titans have gone up against a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
104
Rushing Yards