Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for David Montgomery from EV Insight

David MontgomeryRushing Yards

Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 56.5 (-115) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 5th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to notch 14.3 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among running backs.
David Montgomery has averaged 65.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the NFL among running backs (95th percentile).
The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Chicago Bears have risked going for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Cons

The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be much less involved in his team’s rushing attack this week (51.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (74.1% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers project as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards