Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Damien HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Dolphins vs. Patriots
Right now, Damien Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 45.5 (-129) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Patriots have been the 8th-most run-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 39.7% run rate.
- Damien Harris has garnered 52.1% of his team’s rush attempts since the start of last season, putting him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
- The New England Patriots O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
- Damien Harris has generated 59.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football among RBs (90th percentile).
- Damien Harris’s rushing effectiveness (4.66 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (80th percentile among running backs).
Cons
- The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins defensive ends project as the 5th-best DE corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
- The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Rushing Yards
46
Rushing Yards
