Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Dameon Pierce from EV Insight

Dameon PierceRushing Yards

Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+110/-143).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (+110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-113).

Pros

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 3rd-most run-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 44.1% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 9th-quickest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.83 seconds per snap.
The Houston Texans have played in the 5th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions this week.
Dameon Pierce has grinded out 71.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (95th percentile).

Cons

The Texans are a giant 9.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to be a less important option in his offense’s run game this week (60.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (77.3% in games he has played).
The Houston Texans O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
Opposing offenses have run for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 93 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 5th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards