Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalvin CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Vikings vs. Packers
Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to call the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to notch 15.6 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
- Dalvin Cook has picked up 89.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in football among running backs (98th percentile).
- The Green Bay Packers defense has produced the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, yielding 4.82 yards-per-carry.
- The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 36.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to be a much smaller piece of his team’s run game this week (64.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (78.4% in games he has played).
- The Green Bay Packers linebackers project as the 5th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards
68
Rushing Yards
