Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Cordarrelle Patterson from EV Insight

Cordarrelle PattersonRushing Yards

Right now, Cordarrelle Patterson’s rushing yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 32.5 (-120) after it opened @ 33.5 (-130).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 6th-most run-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 40.8% run rate.
Cordarrelle Patterson has earned 45.4% of his team’s rush attempts since the start of last season, placing him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Cons

The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The New Orleans Saints defense has had the best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, surrendering just 3.80 yards-per-carry.
The New Orleans Saints defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best collection of DEs in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Rushing Yards