Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cordarrelle PattersonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Falcons vs. Saints
Right now, Cordarrelle Patterson’s rushing yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 32.5 (-120) after it opened @ 33.5 (-130).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 6th-most run-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 40.8% run rate.
- Cordarrelle Patterson has earned 45.4% of his team’s rush attempts since the start of last season, placing him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
- The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.
Cons
- The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has had the best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, surrendering just 3.80 yards-per-carry.
- The New Orleans Saints defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best collection of DEs in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Rushing Yards
43
Rushing Yards
