NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Clyde Edwards-HelaireRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Cardinals vs. Chiefs
Right now, Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-125/-109).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 47.5 (-125) after it opened @ 40.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Chiefs are a 6-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
- The Arizona Cardinals defensive ends project as the 4th-worst DE corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 6th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 36.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week’s game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be much less involved in his offense’s running game this week (39.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (59.5% in games he has played).
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Rushing Yards
41
Rushing Yards
