Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Chase Edmonds from EV Insight

Chase EdmondsRushing Yards

Right now, Chase Edmonds’s rushing yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 38.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-120).

Pros

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 46.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Chase Edmonds to total 11.4 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among running backs.
Chase Edmonds’s running efficiency (5.32 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (90th percentile among running backs).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 118.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles profile as the 5th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
50
Rushing Yards