Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chase EdmondsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Dolphins vs. Patriots
Right now, Chase Edmonds’s rushing yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 38.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 46.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Chase Edmonds to total 11.4 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among running backs.
- Chase Edmonds’s running efficiency (5.32 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (90th percentile among running backs).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 118.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
- The New England Patriots defensive tackles profile as the 5th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
- The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Miami Dolphins have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Rushing Yards
50
Rushing Yards
