Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Breece HallRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Jets vs. Bills
Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Breece Hall has earned 47.7% of his team’s rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
- Breece Hall has grinded out 66.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (91st percentile).
- Breece Hall’s running efficiency (5.77 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (93rd percentile among running backs).
- Breece Hall has been among the leading RBs in the league at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 4.12 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 96th percentile.
- The Buffalo Bills safeties project as the 29th-worst safety corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
Cons
- The New York Jets will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 36.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New York Jets have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing attack effectiveness when facing better conditions this week.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 4th-least yards in football (just 96 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Rushing Yards
44
Rushing Yards
