NFL

Bets

September 7, 2022

Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Antonio Gibson from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Antonio GibsonRushing Yards

Right now, Antonio Gibson’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (+100/-122).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 56.5 (-122) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).

Pros

The Commanders are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Commanders have been the 3rd-most run-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 40.9% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 26.90 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to earn 15.3 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive ends project as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

Cons

The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards