Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Antonio GibsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Commanders vs. Jaguars
Right now, Antonio Gibson’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (+100/-122).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 56.5 (-122) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Commanders are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The Commanders have been the 3rd-most run-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 40.9% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 26.90 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to earn 15.3 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive ends project as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
