Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Antonio Gibson from EV Insight

Antonio GibsonRushing Yards

Right now, Antonio Gibson’s rushing yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-139/+102).

The public has bet the OVER up to 35.5 (-139) after it opened @ 27.5 (-119).

Pros

The Commanders are a massive 7-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 44.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.73 seconds per snap.
Antonio Gibson has garnered 32.7% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has produced the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, surrendering 5.00 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Antonio Gibson’s rushing effectiveness (3.54 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football since the start of last season (3rd percentile among RBs).
Antonio Gibson has been among the bottom RBs in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 2.54 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 9th percentile.
The Arizona Cardinals safeties profile as the 3rd-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season with their run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
32
Rushing Yards