NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Antonio GibsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Commanders vs. Cardinals
Right now, Antonio Gibson’s rushing yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-139/+102).
The public has bet the OVER up to 35.5 (-139) after it opened @ 27.5 (-119).
Pros
- The Commanders are a massive 7-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 44.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.73 seconds per snap.
- Antonio Gibson has garnered 32.7% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has produced the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, surrendering 5.00 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
- Antonio Gibson’s rushing effectiveness (3.54 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football since the start of last season (3rd percentile among RBs).
- Antonio Gibson has been among the bottom RBs in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 2.54 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 9th percentile.
- The Arizona Cardinals safeties profile as the 3rd-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season with their run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Rushing Yards
32
Rushing Yards
