Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Falcons vs. Saints
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-108/-127).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 60.5 (-127) after it opened @ 64.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 44.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to accrue 16.0 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
- The Atlanta Falcons linebackers grade out as the 4th-worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
Cons
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to be a less important option in his team’s running game this week (54.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (65.9% in games he has played).
- The New Orleans Saints O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
- Alvin Kamara’s running efficiency (3.62 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football since the start of last season (15th percentile among running backs).
- The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
