Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Alvin Kamara from EV Insight

Alvin KamaraRushing Yards

Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-108/-127).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 60.5 (-127) after it opened @ 64.5 (-113).

Pros

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 44.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to accrue 16.0 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers grade out as the 4th-worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

Cons

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to be a less important option in his team’s running game this week (54.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (65.9% in games he has played).
The New Orleans Saints O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Alvin Kamara’s running efficiency (3.62 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football since the start of last season (15th percentile among running backs).
The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards