Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zay FlowersReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Ravens vs. Texans
Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-111/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 43.5 (-111) after it opened @ 35.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to run the 7th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- The Houston Texans pass defense has not been good when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.15 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the most in the NFL.
- The Houston Texans linebackers project as the worst LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Cons
- The Ravens are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 51.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
- The Houston Texans defense has allowed the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 125.0) to WRs since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
