Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Van JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Seahawks vs. Rams
Right now, Van Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-122/-106).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-106) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Rams are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Van Jefferson has run a route on 91.7% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
- THE BLITZ projects Van Jefferson to accrue 6.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- The Los Angeles Rams have run the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.4 plays per game.
- The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game results when facing windier conditions this week.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the NFL.
- Van Jefferson has been among the weakest wide receivers in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 1.46 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 24th percentile.
- The Seattle Seahawks defense has conceded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 113.0) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
