Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Higbee from EV Insight

Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 42.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-114).

Pros

The Rams are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to notch 6.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Higbee has been a key part of his team’s offense, earning a Target Share of 20.5% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 98th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Los Angeles Rams have run the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.4 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game results when facing windier conditions this week.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the NFL.
Tyler Higbee has been among the least effective receivers in the league among tight ends, averaging a lowly 5.92 yards-per-target since the start of last season while checking in at the 15th percentile.
The Seattle Seahawks safeties profile as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards