Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Rams vs. Bills
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 65.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to total 5.8 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Cons
- The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this game.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has surrendered the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 37.0) to TEs since the start of last season.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (65.6%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (65.6%).
- The Buffalo Bills safeties grade out as the best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
- The Los Angeles Rams have utilized play action on a lowly 21.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards
45
Receiving Yards
