Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Commanders vs. Cardinals
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.73 seconds per snap.
- Terry McLaurin has run a route on 92.8% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 91st percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to accumulate 7.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
- Terry McLaurin has been among the leading pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 67.0 yards per game while grading out in the 88th percentile.
Cons
- The Commanders are a massive 7-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has exhibited good efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, yielding 7.28 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards
62
Receiving Yards
