Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-120) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 60.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Completion% in the league (74.6%) to tight ends since the start of last season (74.6%).

Cons

The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
T.J. Hockenson has been among the least efficient receivers in the league among tight ends, averaging a lowly 5.25 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 6th percentile.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.68 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in the league.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 2nd-best unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards