Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-106/-129).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 43.5 (-129) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).

Pros

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
T.J. Hockenson has run a route on 84.9% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 6.5 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
The Philadelphia Eagles linebackers grade out as the 8th-worst LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 4th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 120.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
T.J. Hockenson has been among the weakest tight ends in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.39 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 18th percentile.
The Detroit Lions O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards