Bills vs Jaguars Picks, NFL Props & Best Bets | Bengals vs Commanders Picks, NFL Props & Best Bets
Chris Meaney
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Lions vs. Eagles
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 43.5 (-129) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- T.J. Hockenson has run a route on 84.9% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 6.5 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
- The Philadelphia Eagles linebackers grade out as the 8th-worst LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 4th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.3% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 120.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- T.J. Hockenson has been among the weakest tight ends in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.39 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 18th percentile.
- The Detroit Lions O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
