Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (+104/-136).

The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (+104) after it opened @ 34.5 (-112).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to notch 5.9 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth has compiled a monstrous 50.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth has been among the best pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 49.0 yards per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 5th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency vs. TEs since the start of last season, allowing 6.18 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.29 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers project as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards