Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).

Pros

The Steelers are a giant 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to garner 5.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth has totaled a monstrous 28.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among TEs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.58 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 2nd-slowest in football since the start of last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Pat Freiermuth has been among the bottom tight ends in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 3.27 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 16th percentile.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 6th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has given their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated play action on a lowly 18.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (3rd-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

Projection

THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards