Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Noah GrayReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Chiefs vs. Lions
Right now, Noah Gray’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Noah Gray to accrue 4.0 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among tight ends.
- Noah Gray has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL among TEs, catching a terrific 83.1% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 94th percentile.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards
33
Receiving Yards
