Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Noah Fant from EV Insight

Noah FantReceiving Yards

Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 22.5 (-110) after it opened @ 34.5 (-115).

Pros

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to earn 4.4 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
Noah Fant has totaled a colossal 35.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile among tight ends.
The Denver Broncos pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 59.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to be much less involved in his team’s passing offense this week (13.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (18.5% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Denver Broncos linebackers profile as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards