Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Seahawks vs. Broncos
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 22.5 (-110) after it opened @ 34.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 6.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to earn 4.4 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
- Noah Fant has totaled a colossal 35.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile among tight ends.
- The Denver Broncos pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 59.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to be much less involved in his team’s passing offense this week (13.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (18.5% in games he has played).
- The Seattle Seahawks O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Denver Broncos linebackers profile as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
