Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mo Alie-Cox from EV Insight

Mo Alie-CoxReceiving Yards

Right now, Mo Alie-Cox’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 23.5 (-115) after it opened @ 20.5 (-115).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Mo Alie-Cox has accumulated a colossal 27.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among TEs.
The Houston Texans pass defense has shown weak efficiency vs. tight ends since the start of last season, giving up 9.10 yards-per-target to the position: the most in football.
The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line has given their quarterback 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Cons

The Colts are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Colts have been the 7th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 60.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 121.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
Mo Alie-Cox has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league among TEs, completing a measly 57.6% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 4th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards