Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mo Alie-CoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Texans vs. Colts
Right now, Mo Alie-Cox’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 23.5 (-115) after it opened @ 20.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Mo Alie-Cox has accumulated a colossal 27.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among TEs.
- The Houston Texans pass defense has shown weak efficiency vs. tight ends since the start of last season, giving up 9.10 yards-per-target to the position: the most in football.
- The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line has given their quarterback 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Cons
- The Colts are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- The Colts have been the 7th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 60.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 121.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
- Mo Alie-Cox has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league among TEs, completing a measly 57.6% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 4th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
