NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Mike GesickiReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 18.5 yards (-133/-103).
The public has bet the OVER up to 18.5 (-133) after it opened @ 17.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will be rolling with backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Dolphins are a big 13.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.1 plays per game.
- Mike Gesicki has run fewer routes this year (55.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (78.3%).
- Mike Gesicki has totaled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (25.0) this year than he did last year (43.0).
- The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 32.0) vs. TEs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards
21
Receiving Yards
