Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike EvansReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 66.5 (-110) after it opened @ 71.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Mike Evans to notch 8.6 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among WRs.
- Mike Evans has notched a monstrous 99.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has yielded the lowest Completion% in football (57.6%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (57.6%).
- The Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the 9th-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on a measly 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Receiving Yards
71
Receiving Yards
