Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Falcons vs. Saints
Right now, Michael Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 44.5 (-115) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Michael Thomas to total 7.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
- The Atlanta Falcons safeties profile as the 6th-worst group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
- The New Orleans Saints O-line has given their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 60.9 plays per game.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.
- The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
