Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Texans vs. Colts
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Michael Pittman has run a route on 96.2% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to notch 8.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
- Michael Pittman has put up a monstrous 75.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among wide receivers.
- The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
Cons
- The Colts are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- The Colts have been the 7th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 60.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 121.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
- The Houston Texans pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.82 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards
72
Receiving Yards
