Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Michael Pittman from EV Insight

Michael PittmanReceiving Yards

Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Michael Pittman has run a route on 96.2% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to notch 8.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
Michael Pittman has put up a monstrous 75.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among wide receivers.
The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Cons

The Colts are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Colts have been the 7th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 60.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 121.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
The Houston Texans pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.82 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards