Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Marquise BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Commanders vs. Cardinals
Right now, Marquise Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-115) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Arizona Cardinals will be rolling with backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Cardinals are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- The Arizona Cardinals offense has played at the 2nd-quickest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, averaging 26.07 seconds per snap.
- Marquise Brown has run a route on 92.1% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 90th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects Marquise Brown to garner 7.6 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 57.0% pass rate.
- The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 5th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the NFL.
- Marquise Brown has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, completing a mere 62.9% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 25th percentile among wideouts
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
