Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Commanders vs. Jaguars
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 22.5 (-135) after it opened @ 28.5 (-117).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 26.90 seconds per play.
- The Washington Commanders O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers grade out as the 9th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
- The Washington Commanders offensive line has given their quarterback 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Commanders are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to be much less involved in his offense’s air attack this week (9.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (16.6% in games he has played).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.13 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the NFL.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards
21
Receiving Yards
