Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Falcons vs. Panthers
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-104/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-104) after it opened @ 38.5 (-113).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to earn 6.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
- Kyle Pitts has accumulated a colossal 77.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among tight ends.
- The Atlanta Falcons O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Falcons are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have run the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 55.1 plays per game.
- Kyle Pitts has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among TEs, hauling in a measly 49.4% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 4th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
