Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kyle Pitts from EV Insight

Kyle PittsReceiving Yards

Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-104/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-104) after it opened @ 38.5 (-113).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to earn 6.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
Kyle Pitts has accumulated a colossal 77.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among tight ends.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Cons

The Falcons are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 55.1 plays per game.
Kyle Pitts has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among TEs, hauling in a measly 49.4% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 4th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards