Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kyle Pitts from EV Insight

Kyle PittsReceiving Yards

Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 54.5 (-115) after it opened @ 51.5 (-118).

Pros

The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to accrue 8.0 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
Kyle Pitts’s 49.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 97th percentile for tight ends.
The New Orleans Saints defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-slowest in football since the start of last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 59.2% pass rate.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The New Orleans Saints linebackers project as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line has given their quarterback just 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards