Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Falcons vs. Saints
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 54.5 (-115) after it opened @ 51.5 (-118).
Pros
- The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to accrue 8.0 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
- Kyle Pitts’s 49.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 97th percentile for tight ends.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 59.2% pass rate.
- The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
- The New Orleans Saints linebackers project as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Atlanta Falcons offensive line has given their quarterback just 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
- The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
