Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Keenan Allen from EV Insight

Keenan AllenReceiving Yards

Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 69.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.6 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the NFL.
Keenan Allen has been among the leading wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 80.0 yards per game while grading out in the 95th percentile.

Cons

The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Chargers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has exhibited good efficiency versus WRs since the start of last season, surrendering 7.64 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards