Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Vikings vs. Packers
Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 80.5 (-110) after it opened @ 78.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to call the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to total 10.8 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
- The Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (58.6%) to wideouts since the start of last season (58.6%).
- The Green Bay Packers pass defense has shown strong efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, giving up 7.42 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the league.
- The Green Bay Packers defensive tackles profile as the 4th-best group of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.
- The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
102
Receiving Yards
102
Receiving Yards
