Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Ja'Marr Chase from EV Insight

Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards

Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-115) after it opened @ 77.5 (-110).

Pros

The Cincinnati Bengals will be forced to start backup QB Joe Burrow this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Ja’Marr Chase has run a route on 99.6% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 100th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Ja’Marr Chase to notch 9.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
Ja’Marr Chase has been among the top WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 93.0 yards per game while ranking in the 99th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Cleveland Browns defense has conceded the 9th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 134.0) to WRs since the start of last season.
The Cleveland Browns cornerbacks profile as the 10th-best group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
86
Receiving Yards