Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Browns vs. Bengals
Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-115) after it opened @ 77.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Cincinnati Bengals will be forced to start backup QB Joe Burrow this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Ja’Marr Chase has run a route on 99.6% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 100th percentile among wideouts.
- THE BLITZ projects Ja’Marr Chase to notch 9.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
- Ja’Marr Chase has been among the top WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 93.0 yards per game while ranking in the 99th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- The Cleveland Browns defense has conceded the 9th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 134.0) to WRs since the start of last season.
- The Cleveland Browns cornerbacks profile as the 10th-best group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
86
Receiving Yards
86
Receiving Yards
