Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jakobi MeyersReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Dolphins vs. Patriots
Right now, Jakobi Meyers’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 43.5 (-133) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Jakobi Meyers has run a route on 91.7% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 89th percentile among wideouts.
- THE BLITZ projects Jakobi Meyers to total 6.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
- Jakobi Meyers has totaled a monstrous 71.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 79th percentile among wide receivers.
- The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Patriots rank as the 8th-least pass-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 60.3% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins safeties project as the 5th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The New England Patriots offensive line has given their quarterback just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards
56
Receiving Yards
