Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Irv SmithReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Vikings vs. Packers
Right now, Irv Smith’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to call the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Irv Smith to notch 5.0 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
- The Green Bay Packers linebackers profile as the 2nd-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
- The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards
40
Receiving Yards
